CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2020-10-27T03:39:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2020-10-27T03:39ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15988/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a filament eruption from N30E10 of the Earth-facing disk shortly after 2020.10.26T22:30Z and can be seen in all SDO imagery. The strongest darkening can be seen in SDO 193 and 211 between 2020.10.26T22:30Z and 2020.10.27T01:33Z. Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I see clear flux rope signatures on Nov 1-2. The whole structure duration is 11/01 ~12:00 UT to 11/02 ~6:00 UT. The maximum magnetic field strength would be less than 10 nT, but it is higher than the average of the ambient magnetic field. There is a smooth and coherent change in the magnetic field direction with signatures of internal complexity. Low temperature, density and signatures of expansion in the solar wind bulk velocity. This is probably a streamer blowout.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-11-01T08:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-10-30T20:41Z (-3.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V2. ****************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 420.0 km/s u_r = 472.856 Acceleration: -0.0861901 Duration in seconds: 320564.62 Duration in days: 3.7102386 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.09 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 445.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/10/2020 Time: 20:41 UTLead Time: 73.18 hour(s)
Difference: 36.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2020-10-29T07:30Z
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